How the World Loops

Or everything that's old is new again

My oldest kid (23 yrs old) is canceling Spotify. “It’s lame. I bought a CD player and I got a player for digital downloads.” No more streaming monthly bill. They think it’s novel and cool. Just like film cameras are having a renaissance.

A short while back, I made a video wherein part of my story drew from the Farm Security Administration (FSA) in the US in the 1930s. They were part of several efforts to try and fix a problem that started brewing around 1921 in the US, where one in five people worked in and around the farming industry.

A Slow Disaster

After World War I, folks in the US accidentally presumed all global financial (and crop/grain) markets would act the same way as they did during WWI. The problem was, this wasn’t true, and a huge set of angry financial dominos fell (Great Depression, anyone?). This was a slow motion wreck that NOW we can see coming from eight years before it hit.

After the first bang in the Great Depression, gazillions of Americans found themselves displaced, out of work, and scrambling to put food on the table, because they didn’t adapt to the new market conditions.

Because technology changed. Because a lot of jobs that used to be necessary suddenly weren’t. Because a huge sea change smashed into reality and everyone had to reset.

The World Loops

What’s tricky about history repeating is that it’s never exactly the same. That would be too easy.

But sure as sand fills the bottom of the hourglass first, a big change is about to thump the world around our little robot overlords. Only, there are plenty of other changes happening at the same time, so predicting and guessing where it all goes is harder to do. Functional factory robots (like real literal physical ones) are improving. What you knew about AI around January 20th is no longer valid as of last week. A few political… happenings are also skewering the larger maps and charts.

My kid wanted to cancel their subscriptions for a few reasons: didn’t want the monthly bill, less and less of our life feels owned instead of borrowed, wants a simpler time.

The world is being the world again. But while we can freak out if we want (lots of folks do), instead of that, I’ll recommend this: it’s clear that “what is” won’t continue. We can’t guess “what will be.” But what we can do is research and read and understand, “How did we handle this in the old days?” and “What would we have to change to make that work for us this time?”

I’m Not Giving You Answers

I’m saying, “There’s something coming. Eyes up.”

That’s all I know. I wrote a bit about this in my last mid-week letter to you. If you skipped that because you’re “sick of hearing about AI,” I’ll refer you to 1929, and all the aftermath through the 1930s.

In the meantime, read, learn, consolidate, stay to the thick branches, and don’t reach out to the fresh new green.

Unless you can fly.

Oh, and keep your eyes on the people who stay abreast of this stuff. You don’t have to learn it all. Just keep an eye on those who are chasing it all down.

Chris…